This is not a blog

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It's just a repository for graphs and comments on these.

People can freely use the graphs as they like for whatever purpose, but it would be nice that they link to the source page.

Popular posts from this blog

Another Yes Poll Plot

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For this plot, I show the yearly average as per the methodology detailed here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html Updated with newer results here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html But this time I've added every single poll point that went into it, including today's IPSOS MORI. If you simply stick a linear trend through that, you get basically the same answer. Aye, excluding dinnae ken, has risen steadily from around 40% in 2011, to just over 50% today. Always look at the bigger picture.
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Irish reunification long term polling trends

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I don't claim to be any expert on N. Ireland, apart from being a Irish National thanks to my Irish gran who was born in the North before it existed, i.e. pre-partition.  But then this is simply a statistical analysis of data, using the exactly the same procedure as for Scotland here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html With data sourced from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_polling Suffice to say while the dataset is small, the trend in NI seems very clear, with potential parallels to that of Scotland. Namely, there is a steadily rising Yes baseline with waverers on top responding to events to give occasional peaks; Brexit being the obvious one in the graph, with covid maybe giving people pause for thought? It seems the UK has very little time left. Baseline support for reunification may hit majority by as early as 2023.
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Scottish independence long term polling August 2021

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Below is a plot of all independence Y/N polling data going back to 2011. For each year, an average has been taken of all polls from individual pollsters (from the what Scotland thinks website)*. These averages were then combined to give a single new average value for all, ensuring no specific pollster bias. In all years bar 2015, some form of mandate existed for an independence referendum, making that year slightly anomalous in the series; people were free to use Y/N polling as a 'protest', e.g. for more devolution, without fear it might prompt the Scottish Government to hold another vote. In terms of the overall data trend, it can be seen that the series is characterised by a decadal steady increase in support for independence which varies on the shorter term between a 'baseline' and 'upper bound'. The baseline can be assumed to be those that will always vote Yes 'tomorrow', no questions asked. They are mainly Scottish people who just do not identify as...
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