2014 Yes Vote by Local Authority Area National Identity

-

 Plot of % Yes in 2014 for different local authority areas based on the % of respective populations nationally self identifying as British, Scottish + British, English and Other UK (Census 2011).

Unsurprisingly, the more British/other UK identifying a LA population was, the lower the Yes vote in 2014. Of course conversely, the more Scottish and less British/UKish an LA area is, the more it voted in favour of independence. 




Popular posts from this blog

WoS Donation Data for 2019-2020

-
Image
Total (over the entire life of the site) stated donations as of: August 2019 https://archive.is/sH1OD#selection-743.0-747.50 ‘£900,000’ August 2020 https://archive.is/nQmQC#selection-1255.0-1255.31 £899,806 September 2021 https://archive.is/baeX7#selection-3455.0-3457.8 £884,841
Read more

Scottish Free Choice Self Declared National Identity / Nationality as a Function of Year of Majority

-
Image
Graph of Scottish free choice self declared national identity / nationality as a function of year of majority (YoM) i.e. the year a person turned 18. Selected YoM with corresponding years of birth (b, in brackets) are shown. British identity in the Scottish population peaks in those born in 1944, i.e. the post war consensus baby boomers, these people turning 18 early in the swinging sixties (1962). Britishness then goes into continuous decline while Scottish (only) identity remains relatively stable in those who turned 18 in the intervening years until ~1997 onwards when it starts to rise measurably, with a corresponding acceleration in the decline of Britishness. This is the generation turning 18 in the year of the 1997 devolution referendum, i.e. ‘Thatcher’s children’, born in 1979. 2007 sees a huge surge in Scottish identity in new 18 year old voters. These are the young Scots coming of age under pro-independence devolved governments. These trends are fundamentally linked to the ~60
Read more

Scottish independence long term polling August 2021

-
Image
Below is a plot of all independence Y/N polling data going back to 2011. For each year, an average has been taken of all polls from individual pollsters (from the what Scotland thinks website)*. These averages were then combined to give a single new average value for all, ensuring no specific pollster bias. In all years bar 2015, some form of mandate existed for an independence referendum, making that year slightly anomalous in the series; people were free to use Y/N polling as a 'protest', e.g. for more devolution, without fear it might prompt the Scottish Government to hold another vote. In terms of the overall data trend, it can be seen that the series is characterised by a decadal steady increase in support for independence which varies on the shorter term between a 'baseline' and 'upper bound'. The baseline can be assumed to be those that will always vote Yes 'tomorrow', no questions asked. They are mainly Scottish people who just do not identify as
Read more