Scottish independence long term polling August 2021
Below is a plot of all independence Y/N polling data going back to 2011.
For each year, an average has been taken of all polls from individual pollsters (from the what Scotland thinks website)*. These averages were then combined to give a single new average value for all, ensuring no specific pollster bias.
In all years bar 2015, some form of mandate existed for an independence referendum, making that year slightly anomalous in the series; people were free to use Y/N polling as a 'protest', e.g. for more devolution, without fear it might prompt the Scottish Government to hold another vote.
In terms of the overall data trend, it can be seen that the series is characterised by a decadal steady increase in support for independence which varies on the shorter term between a 'baseline' and 'upper bound'.
The baseline can be assumed to be those that will always vote Yes 'tomorrow', no questions asked. They are mainly Scottish people who just do not identify as British, including new Scots who feel similarly. They are completely lost to the union.
The upper bound changes with events and comprises the 'wavering'. These people are first and foremost Scottish, but may still have some attachment to the UK in terms of identity, or be concerned about economic impacts. Events (e.g. covid, brexit) change what they say, causing waves of rising and receding support. In 2014, these people ultimately jumped on board, and it is likely they'd do the same again in a new referendum.
So while it may appear Yes has receded in 2021, this is just a retreat cycle of waves on a steadily rising tide. And, as can be seen, baseline Yes appears to have been reached as of this year, making Yes likely now a forgone conclusion, particularly if the wavering upper bound voters jump on board like last time.
Of course for the cautious, baseline data suggest by next year / 2023, polls will start ceasing to ever show No in majority as the baseline starts to be 53% with standard a +/-3% error.
It is likely that the increasing economic damage of brexit will push the wavering back to Yes going forward.
Finally, based on the data, it seems clear to me why the Scottish government wants to hold on a little longer. That should ensure the result is a forgone conclusion with no going back.
Anyway, the advice is that if erm 'real independence supporters' are telling you that Yes support is e.g. 'no further forward than when Sturgeon took office', they are either completely lacking in knowledge or are lying, so should be ignored in either case going forward.
