Forgotten by most, the UK economy started contracting in Q3 2019 ahead of Britain's final departure from the EU (1 & 2). This was of course well before the covid pandemic, which didn't start to impact the UK economy until mid Q1 2020. As would be expected, the effect of the 2017 Leave vote was to cause GDP growth to slow, commensurate with skilled workers from the EU ceasing to come to live and work in the UK. This can be seen clearly in the data (3). While the pandemic has masked what has been happening GDP-wise, the trend will be as indicated in (2); the decline in this closely correlating with the depopulation trend (3). Never in the history of human civilisation has an economy grown in the face of mass depopulation, particularly of young, skilled workers. The UK is now entering a long term economic decline that could only be arrested if depopulation is stopped, and by popular free will / free movement. The UK government may soon act to prevent people leaving, e.g. by re...
For this plot, I show the yearly average as per the methodology detailed here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html Updated with newer results here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html But this time I've added every single poll point that went into it, including today's IPSOS MORI. If you simply stick a linear trend through that, you get basically the same answer. Aye, excluding dinnae ken, has risen steadily from around 40% in 2011, to just over 50% today. Always look at the bigger picture.
Ahead of the last Scottish election, as a show of solidarity, I made a donation to all Yes parties. As a result, I get emails from these from time to time, including from Alba. Over Christmas and Hogmanay, two popped into my inbox within a few days of each other; first a Christmas message from Alba's Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, followed by a Hogmanay message from party leader Alex Salmond. I clicked for a wee look on the first one when it arrived, and it caught my interest because I recognised the dress Tasmina was wearing as the one she’d had on in a shoe shop in London’s Mayfair just days before . Now I didn't pay much attention to the story as it came from the Daily Record (and has been pulled since due to inaccuracy; Tasmina just been there for shoe repairs), but I couldn’t help wonder if her message had been filmed on the same day, in the same place, i.e. Merry Christmas from the ‘heart of the dark star’ as Salmond used to call it! 😉 But of course the scene around her wa...