This is Great Britain

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Another Yes Poll Plot

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For this plot, I show the yearly average as per the methodology detailed here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html Updated with newer results here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html But this time I've added every single poll point that went into it, including today's IPSOS MORI. If you simply stick a linear trend through that, you get basically the same answer. Aye, excluding dinnae ken, has risen steadily from around 40% in 2011, to just over 50% today. Always look at the bigger picture.
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Irish reunification long term polling trends

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I don't claim to be any expert on N. Ireland, apart from being a Irish National thanks to my Irish gran who was born in the North before it existed, i.e. pre-partition.  But then this is simply a statistical analysis of data, using the exactly the same procedure as for Scotland here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html With data sourced from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_polling Suffice to say while the dataset is small, the trend in NI seems very clear, with potential parallels to that of Scotland. Namely, there is a steadily rising Yes baseline with waverers on top responding to events to give occasional peaks; Brexit being the obvious one in the graph, with covid maybe giving people pause for thought? It seems the UK has very little time left. Baseline support for reunification may hit majority by as early as 2023.
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