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Another Yes Poll Plot

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For this plot, I show the yearly average as per the methodology detailed here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html Updated with newer results here: https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html But this time I've added every single poll point that went into it, including today's IPSOS MORI. If you simply stick a linear trend through that, you get basically the same answer. Aye, excluding dinnae ken, has risen steadily from around 40% in 2011, to just over 50% today. Always look at the bigger picture.
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'Real Independence Supporters' say Happy Christmas & Hogmanay from London

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Ahead of the last Scottish election, as a show of solidarity, I made a donation to all Yes parties. As a result, I get emails from these from time to time, including from Alba. Over Christmas and Hogmanay, two popped into my inbox within a few days of each other; first a Christmas message from Alba's Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, followed by a Hogmanay message from party leader Alex Salmond. I clicked for a wee look on the first one when it arrived, and it caught my interest because I recognised the dress Tasmina was wearing as the one she’d had on in a shoe shop in London’s Mayfair just days before . Now I didn't pay much attention to the story as it came from the Daily Record (and has been pulled since due to inaccuracy; Tasmina just been there for shoe repairs), but I couldn’t help wonder if her message had been filmed on the same day, in the same place, i.e. Merry Christmas from the ‘heart of the dark star’ as Salmond used to call it! 😉 But of course the scene around her wa...
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Scottish independence long term polling August 2021

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Below is a plot of all independence Y/N polling data going back to 2011. For each year, an average has been taken of all polls from individual pollsters (from the what Scotland thinks website)*. These averages were then combined to give a single new average value for all, ensuring no specific pollster bias. In all years bar 2015, some form of mandate existed for an independence referendum, making that year slightly anomalous in the series; people were free to use Y/N polling as a 'protest', e.g. for more devolution, without fear it might prompt the Scottish Government to hold another vote. In terms of the overall data trend, it can be seen that the series is characterised by a decadal steady increase in support for independence which varies on the shorter term between a 'baseline' and 'upper bound'. The baseline can be assumed to be those that will always vote Yes 'tomorrow', no questions asked. They are mainly Scottish people who just do not identify as...
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