Irish reunification long term polling trends

-

I don't claim to be any expert on N. Ireland, apart from being a Irish National thanks to my Irish gran who was born in the North before it existed, i.e. pre-partition. 

But then this is simply a statistical analysis of data, using the exactly the same procedure as for Scotland here:

https://skiersfirindy.blogspot.com/2021/08/oan-subject-of-yes-polling.html

With data sourced from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_polling

Suffice to say while the dataset is small, the trend in NI seems very clear, with potential parallels to that of Scotland. Namely, there is a steadily rising Yes baseline with waverers on top responding to events to give occasional peaks; Brexit being the obvious one in the graph, with covid maybe giving people pause for thought?

It seems the UK has very little time left. Baseline support for reunification may hit majority by as early as 2023.





Popular posts from this blog

Scottish independence long term polling August 2021

-
Image
Below is a plot of all independence Y/N polling data going back to 2011. For each year, an average has been taken of all polls from individual pollsters (from the what Scotland thinks website)*. These averages were then combined to give a single new average value for all, ensuring no specific pollster bias. In all years bar 2015, some form of mandate existed for an independence referendum, making that year slightly anomalous in the series; people were free to use Y/N polling as a 'protest', e.g. for more devolution, without fear it might prompt the Scottish Government to hold another vote. In terms of the overall data trend, it can be seen that the series is characterised by a decadal steady increase in support for independence which varies on the shorter term between a 'baseline' and 'upper bound'. The baseline can be assumed to be those that will always vote Yes 'tomorrow', no questions asked. They are mainly Scottish people who just do not identify as
Read more

WoS Donation Data for 2019-2020

-
Image
Total (over the entire life of the site) stated donations as of: August 2019 https://archive.is/sH1OD#selection-743.0-747.50 ‘£900,000’ August 2020 https://archive.is/nQmQC#selection-1255.0-1255.31 £899,806 September 2021 https://archive.is/baeX7#selection-3455.0-3457.8 £884,841
Read more

Scottish Free Choice Self Declared National Identity / Nationality as a Function of Year of Majority

-
Image
Graph of Scottish free choice self declared national identity / nationality as a function of year of majority (YoM) i.e. the year a person turned 18. Selected YoM with corresponding years of birth (b, in brackets) are shown. British identity in the Scottish population peaks in those born in 1944, i.e. the post war consensus baby boomers, these people turning 18 early in the swinging sixties (1962). Britishness then goes into continuous decline while Scottish (only) identity remains relatively stable in those who turned 18 in the intervening years until ~1997 onwards when it starts to rise measurably, with a corresponding acceleration in the decline of Britishness. This is the generation turning 18 in the year of the 1997 devolution referendum, i.e. ‘Thatcher’s children’, born in 1979. 2007 sees a huge surge in Scottish identity in new 18 year old voters. These are the young Scots coming of age under pro-independence devolved governments. These trends are fundamentally linked to the ~60
Read more