Mass, Uncontrolled Emigration out of the UK & Long Term GDP Contraction

Forgotten by most, the UK economy started contracting in Q3 2019 ahead of Britain's final departure from the EU (1 & 2). This was of course well before the covid pandemic, which didn't start to impact the UK economy until mid Q1 2020.

As would be expected, the effect of the 2017 Leave vote was to cause GDP growth to slow, commensurate with skilled workers from the EU ceasing to come to live and work in the UK. This can be seen clearly in the data (3).

While the pandemic has masked what has been happening GDP-wise, the trend will be as indicated in (2); the decline in this closely correlating with the depopulation trend (3).

Never in the history of human civilisation has an economy grown in the face of mass depopulation, particularly of young, skilled workers. The UK is now entering a long term economic decline that could only be arrested if depopulation is stopped, and by popular free will / free movement.

The UK government may soon act to prevent people leaving, e.g. by requiring exit visas, in an attempt to stem the outflow. However, this cannot solve the problem, only make it worse, as it will drive immigration down even further, with minimal impact on emigration as non-British nationals and dual nationals cannot be realistically stopped from leaving. 

As the Iron curtain proved, turning the border guards around does not stop people finding ways to get out and of course doesn't help the economy.  

1. UK Q on Q change in GDP since 2005. Not the Q4 2019 contraction.

2. UK GDP since 2005. Due to mass emigration of skilled workers and businesses, it cannot feasibly return to pre-pandemic levels.

3. Number of EU and non EU foreign citizens living in the UK since 2015. EU workers ceased arriving net in 2017 after the leave vote. Mass net emigration of these began 2019/20 with the end of free movement. 




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